Marginal Risk

Near Field Communication and the Future of Checkins

2011-01-14T16:19:00.001-05:00

The Future of Check ins

View more presentations from DASH7 Alliance.

200 Years In 4 Minutes

2010-12-02T12:08:00.001-05:00

Hans Rosling looks at income growth and life expectancy across 200 countries over the past 200 years, check it out:

[HT TPM]

Solar Subsidies

2010-11-28T15:30:00.003-05:00

Total worldwide energy generated from solar power doubles every two years, the question is whether the U.S. will be a part of the boom or not. But if our current competitive situation is any indication, we have some catching up to do.

Reagan Budget Director on GOP 'Theology' of Tax Cuts

2010-11-28T15:22:00.005-05:00

Even though he managed to get some air time with Fareed, people like Stockman aren't going to receive much play in today's news cycle -- which is to say, effectively nobody gives a damn.

China's Inflationary Boom

2010-11-25T18:39:00.006-05:00

WSJ reports China may use its central bank to clamp down on climbing food prices. The rising ~~communist~~ country blames the U.S., but that won't effect market forces in the mean time.

China Takes Away the Commodity Punch Bowl

If commodities bulls have a religious mantra, it is "China giveth." The risk is it now taketh away.

China is struggling to tame an inflationary dragon. Prices, especially for food, are rising strongly, and expectations for future price increases have surged.

Beijing blames U.S. quantitative easing, or QE, for pushing up the price of the commodities that China consumes voraciously. But QE is only part of the story. Chinese money supply surged by the equivalent of 40% of GDP last year, according to Lombard Street Research. This year, it has expanded by $115 billion a month, says Citigroup, far higher than QE's monthly budget of $75 billion.

Beijing's efforts to curb inflation to date have centered on raising banks' reserve requirements, with some now at a record 19%, and adopting some price controls.

These have done little to curb rampant bank lending, though, which likely will significantly exceed the 7.5 trillion yuan ($1.129 trillion) target set last year. Price controls, blunt instruments that distort supply, carry a whiff of panic.

If Beijing's response is slow, that raises the danger of greater tightening down the road to tame more rampant inflation, including interest-rate increases.

[...]

Warren Buffett: "Trickle Down theory hasn't worked."

2010-11-21T16:17:00.001-05:00

Somebody shut this guy up, he's crashing the party...

Cycles, Cycles, Cycles

2010-11-17T23:05:00.000-05:00

[HT Ritholtz]

Jeremy Grantham: "We've already started to sell..."

2010-11-17T19:30:00.001-05:00

Grantham with the latest:

Tales of Fraud and Corruption

2010-11-04T16:22:00.021-04:00

William P. Browder is a renowned private equity investor who made his name in eastern europe during the early 90s. Here he tells the story of his career, following up to 2009 when one of his lawyers was brutally tortured and murdered in Russian prison for speaking up against corruption.

This is Mr. Browder at the University of San Diego, School of Law, with a presentation entitled, Corporate Governance in Emerging Markets:

Election Night 2010

2010-11-03T00:59:00.010-04:00

Big turn tonight for the conservative class in the national election, but going forward, without inclusion of the Senate in a full congressional majority, the legislature looks to be in gridlock until 2012. I don't expect too much compromise in the mean time.

We appear to be entering a period of political warfare, lessening the probability of a concerted effort to deal with the economy in the short and long term. Seven lean years, here we come!

Jeremy Grantham's Latest GMO Quarterly Letter

2010-10-26T20:57:00.002-04:00

October issue is here, check it out:

Night of the Living Fed - GMO October 2010

Hoocoodanode?

2010-10-24T21:36:00.013-04:00

Look, who are we kidding, entrenched interests are going to do everything within their means to block any meaningful change in how we produce and expend energy. At the current moment, pollution is a profit center, so there are no incentives for restructuring how we do things -- yet. We'll have to wait and see. Just a minor note though: mass extinctions aren't anything new.

http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

Confidence in the System is Eroding

2010-10-24T19:34:00.004-04:00

Joseph Stiglitz with some current commentary.

"MBS Investors Are Calling Their Lawyers"

2010-10-23T20:22:00.006-04:00

It looks like we're heading towards lawsuit city, and some of the nation's largest banks are in the crosshairs of the SEC. Many of the mortgage-backed-securities that were traded during the bubble apparently don't have the right paper work, creating havoc in terms of figuring out who actually owns all the homes that were packaged up and resold.

According to New York securities law, there are particular requirements needed to validate ownership of mortgages, and when the banks went on a selling spree, they just happened to forget a few minor details. Here's Christopher Whalen on bloomberg with some of the recent news. [HT Rithholtz]

Drive: The Surprising Truth About What Motivates Us

2010-10-21T20:49:00.002-04:00

Fundamental shift underway...

Foreclosure Nation

2010-10-21T18:34:00.000-04:00

More like Flip Nation?

Wireless Data Taking Over the Network

2010-10-21T18:12:00.025-04:00

You don't have to own an iPhone to know that wireless data is fundamentally changing. Where as a few years ago there were strictly voice packets traveling across wireless spectrum, today you have netbooks, tablets, and a wide variety of non-voice devices hitting the market.

If sales of the iPad are any indication, the future of wireless will be dominated by non-voice subscriptions, serving as a disruptive force in the industry, providing new opportunities for service providers and device makers alike.

[HT Kedrosky f/t chart]

Steve Job's Epic 5-Minute Anti-Google Rant

2010-10-18T23:50:00.002-04:00

Dunno what you're so worried about bro...

Startup School on October 16th

2010-10-17T14:42:00.000-04:00

Great talk with Zuckerburg and Brian Chesky from Airbnb.

Watch live video from Startup School on Justin.tv

Benoît Mandelbrot R.I.P

2010-10-16T13:42:00.003-04:00

The Father of fractal geometry passed away Thursday, but his work lives on. Rest in Peace, Benoît Mandelbrot.

The Times They Are A-Changin'

2010-10-14T16:05:00.008-04:00

Mint.com Pre-Launch Pitch Deck

2010-10-13T11:13:00.006-04:00

Impressive.

edit: Not the actual pitch deck used by the Mint team, but was produced by a student group at Berkley. Still impressive, though.

Mint.com Pre-Launch Pitch Deck

View more presentations from Hiten Shah.

Wall Street Machine Bots Are Taking Over

2010-10-12T22:49:00.055-04:00

DAMN YOU MACHINE BOTS!

Edit:

Here's a detailed look at six primary HFT strategies:

It's Worse Than You Think

2010-10-09T16:08:00.002-04:00

Hoocoodanode?

Building a Better America - One Wealth Quintile at a Time

Prepare for Some Big Changes

2010-10-09T15:55:00.002-04:00

The latest Boeckh Investment letter, check it out:
Boeckh Letter Government Policy and the Markets Oct 7 2010

Congressional Ownage

2010-10-06T13:27:00.002-04:00

It's no secret, the political process in the United States is dominated by moneyed interests. But if you want to visualize it, then examine the following:

[Hat Tip Mother Jones - Congress Corporate Sponsors]

Google's CEO: 'The Laws Are Written by Lobbyists'

2010-10-02T20:17:00.007-04:00

Don't expect anyone do do anything about it...

Receipt of the Day

2010-10-01T13:54:00.000-04:00

Ever wonder where your taxes go? Hat tip to Ezra over at the Washington Post.

Gold

2010-09-26T22:42:00.001-04:00

20 Years in the Making

2010-09-23T14:46:00.002-04:00

FCC Frees up Vacant TV Airwaves for "SUPER WI-FI" Technologies

Negotiate Commodities, Seize Opportunities

2010-09-16T12:06:00.009-04:00

Steve Blank is one of my favorite authors and entrepreneurial minds. His ideas about early stage startup development have formed the basis for how I now approach business and the search for repeatable models. Every once in a while he has a great post on his own experiences, and the following piece is one of them. The takeaway: Seize opportunities, negotiate commodities. Check it out.

You Negotiate Commodities, But You Seize Opportunities

It took losing something important to understand the difference between a commodity and an opportunity. Along the way I also learned yet another way entrepreneurs see the world differently from their investors...

Ted Turner @ US Zeitgeist 2010

2010-09-14T22:49:00.018-04:00

This video includes talks from James Wolfensohn and Nouriel Roubini, but the session turns optimistic when Ted Turner takes the stage.

Today's Links

2010-09-14T00:20:00.007-04:00

2.9 million square foot carrier hotel at 111 8th Avenue in Manhattan for Sale

Seagate's Self-Encrypting Laptop HD Wins Key U.S. Government Certification

Nokia’s Troubles Deepen, Key Exec Resigns

China Wants to Eat my Lunch!

2010-09-13T23:44:00.004-04:00

Now what...

WSJ: China Tops U.S. Energy Use

Dropbox Startup Lessons Learned

2010-04-24T20:19:00.001-04:00

Dropbox Startup Lessons Learned

View more presentations from gueste94e4c.

One of the Best in History

2010-04-24T16:42:00.000-04:00

The Human Subway Map

2010-04-23T20:26:00.001-04:00

Customer Development: Berkeley-Columbia Executive MBA Program (Steve Blank)

2010-04-23T18:34:00.002-04:00

Berkeley-Columbia Executive MBA Program (Steve Blank)

View more presentations from Sean Ellis.

Happy Earth Day!

2010-04-22T21:20:00.002-04:00

The Lean Startup Philosophy, with Hiten Shah

2010-04-22T20:19:00.002-04:00

Business Tips via Mixergy, home of the ambitious upstart!

It's a Failure of Leadership

2010-04-21T21:10:00.004-04:00

Epic

2010-04-21T18:34:00.002-04:00

Round 1

2010-04-20T21:13:00.004-04:00

Hey We Want Our Phone Back

2010-04-20T21:08:00.002-04:00

Internet

2010-04-19T23:54:00.001-04:00

First Report On The Internet - CBC Prime Time News - More amazing video clips are a click away

Mixergy Interview: Jason Fried of 37signals

2010-03-31T21:08:00.005-04:00

Great interview with Jason Fried of 37signals. He took a very small web development firm in the late nighties and grew it into a business that now supports 3 million users. Check it out.

Business Tips via Mixergy, home of the ambitious upstart!

A Bad Case of Baumol’s

2010-02-16T13:25:00.002-05:00

Source: The New Yorker

Generally, productivity growth is a boon, but it creates problems for non-productive enterprises like classical music, education, and car repair: to keep luring talent, they have to increase wages, or else people eventually migrate to businesses that pay better. Instead of becoming nurses or mechanics, they become telecom engineers or machinists. That’s why teachers are getting paid a lot more than they were twenty years ago. (The average salary for an associate college professor has risen almost seventy per cent since the early eighties, and that’s if you adjust for inflation.) To pay those wages, schools and hospitals have to raise prices. The result is that in industries where productivity is flat costs and prices keep going up. Economists call this phenomenon “Baumol’s cost disease,” after William Baumol, the N.Y.U. economist who first made the diagnosis, using the Mozart analogy, in the sixties. As anyone with kids knows, cost disease is alive and well. A recent study by the economists Jack Triplett and Barry Bosworth demonstrates that among the service businesses that have been least productive in recent years you’ll find education, insurance, health care, and entertainment. These are the ones that have seen steep price hikes.

There are really two American economies: one that’s getting more productive and one that’s not. In the first—the economy of Dell, Toyota, and Wal-Mart—consumers have grown accustomed to paying less for more. In the second—the economy of Harvard, the Yankees, and Bob’s Body Shop—they pay more for the same. The first economy has policymakers worried about deflation. The second has consumers worried about paying their bills.

A Brief History of Pretty Much Everything

2010-02-16T12:58:00.001-05:00

Source: Capital Jungle

Does Dick Cheney Want to Be Prosecuted?

2010-02-16T11:33:00.002-05:00

It appears so...

source: No Comment - Scott Horton

After he was indicted for the murder of Alexander Hamilton, vice president Aaron Burr fled to South Carolina, to hide out with his daughter. Another vice president, Spiro Agnew, kept completely silent before pleading nolo contendere on corruption charges. Former vice president Dick Cheney, on the other hand, seems proud of his criminal misadventures. On Sunday, he took to the airwaves to brag about them.

“I was a big supporter of waterboarding,” Cheney said in an appearance on ABC’s This Week on Sunday. He went on to explain that Justice Department lawyers had been instructed to write legal opinions to cover the use of this and other torture techniques after the White House had settled on them.

Section 2340A of the federal criminal code makes it an offense to torture or to conspire to torture. Violators are subject to jail terms or to death in appropriate cases , as where death results from the application of torture techniques.Prosecutors have argued that a criminal investigation into torture undertaken with the direction of the Bush White House would raise complex legal issues, and proof would be difficult. But what about cases in which an instigator openly and notoriously brags about his role in torture? Cheney told Jonathan Karl that he used his position within the National Security Council to advocate for the use of waterboarding and other torture techniques. Former CIA agent John Kiriakou and others have confirmed that when waterboarding was administered, it was only after receiving NSC clearance. Hence, Cheney was not speaking hypothetically but admitting his involvement in the process that led to decisions to waterboard in at least three cases.

What prosecutor can look away when a perpetrator mocks the law itself and revels in his role in violating it? Such cases cry out for prosecution. Dick Cheney wants to be prosecuted. And prosecutors should give him what he wants.

Another Satisfied Customer

2010-02-16T11:19:00.003-05:00

Even Hunter S. Thompson has AV problems...

The New Junk Economics

2010-02-15T21:28:00.010-05:00

Excellent discussion with economist Dr. Michael Hudson about the current climate. A lot of information and ground to cover. Also probably the best analysis I've heard in the last few weeks.

Guns and Butter - The New Junk Economics: From Democracy to Neoliberal Oligarchy - February 10, 2010 at 1:00pm

Where is the Money in 2010 What are the Risks?

2010-02-09T14:42:00.005-05:00

An hour long discussion from Russia, featuring Faber, Taleb, and Hendry.

The Russia Forum 2010

Google's Super Bowl Commercial

2010-02-07T19:14:00.003-05:00

Not bad for their first ad.

U.S. Monetary and Fiscal Policy Invites Bankruptcy

2010-02-06T22:41:00.011-05:00

I've been following Marc Faber for quite some time now. He's a widely known Swiss economist and successful wealth manager for nearly 40 years.

He called the beginning of the March rally in 2009 when the S&P hit 666, and these days he's had much to say about the inflationary machinations of Ben Bernanke and the other central banks. Here's the latest from Moscow:

BioTech Dynamite

2010-02-06T21:39:00.011-05:00

This is a very interesting article that goes into some of the details surrounding emerging biotechnologies, and the potential financial opportunities that will be available this decade, and certainly for years to come.

I thoroughly agree with the author Patrick here, because after watching so many TED talks, I literally walk around everyday thinking about these new breakthroughs and how they will ultimately transform our world.

Remember how Google made information easier to find? Now imagine a company coming along that will have a similar cultural impact but will help you live longer, become stronger, and think faster.

Well that horizon is about to hit, big time.

The Coming BioTech Bubble

Average lifespans have been increasing steadily for hundreds of years but have recently begun to accelerate noticeably. This trend will continue to increase as proven biotechnologies, now in the developmental stage, come to market. These biotechnologies include RNA interference, nanotech biosensors, personalized medicine, nanotech viricides and stem cell technologies among others. Non-medical biotechnologies will not directly impact lifespans but they will create enormous wealth. Notably, I'm talking about cellular engineering.

There is still work to do in all these areas but the science behind them is solid. When they come to market, which will be sooner than almost anyone expects, they will create enormous wealth for those with the foresight to invest in them before the general public has caught on.

Think, for example, back to the birthing days of the computer and software industries. Remember when virtually everybody considered personal computers expensive toys that would never really catch on? Do you remember when financial gurus were saying the Internet was a fad and that e-commerce would never be more than a novelty? This year, by the way, Amazon.com sold more e-books than paper books.

When those technologies were ramping up, it was possible to buy a diversified mix of the best players at bargain prices. When the technology proved itself, people who held such portfolios made immense fortunes despite the fact that many of the original companies failed. You can own a bunch of losers but still makes thousands of percent returns if your portfolio included the big winners like Intel, Apple and Microsoft.

As people catch on to the potential of these new biotechnologies, we will see similar bubbles. John Mauldin, in fact, has predicted just that. Now, therefore, is the time to begin building a diversified portfolio of the most promising transformational biotechs. So just what biotechnologies are we talking about?

Washington Merry-Go-Round

2010-02-06T11:39:00.004-05:00

The year is 1955...

The Lewiston Daily Sun

Some Thoughts from Davos

2010-02-05T13:26:00.001-05:00

Born Poor? Get Used to It

2010-02-04T13:44:00.006-05:00

Excellent article on Samuel Bowles and the status of contemporary economic theory.

Santa Fe Reporter

[...] More numbers, for your consideration:

45.7

23

The first number is the “Gini coefficient” for New Mexico. The Gini is an expression economists use to measure equality or inequality in a society.

Zero describes the ultimate level playing field, a nonexistent land in which everyone has all the same stuff. A completely unequal society, in which one person has sole control of literally everything, would have a Gini of 100. New Mexico’s Gini score (45.7) reveals this state is more unequal than most. Utah is the most egalitarian state (with a 41.3 Gini), while the District of Columbia (53.7) is the most economically polarized, according to the most recent Census report, from 2006.

The second figure, 23, is the Gini for Sweden, the world’s most egalitarian country. Whereas most of Europe, Canada and Australia have Ginis in the low 30s, the US has over the past several decades developed inequalities usually found only in poor countries with autocratic governments.

So what? Isn’t inequality merely the price of America being No. 1?

“That’s almost certainly false,” Bowles tells SFR. “Prior to about 20 years ago, most economists thought that inequality just greased the wheels of progress. Overwhelmingly now, people who study it empirically think that it’s sand in the wheels.” [...]

I think I See a Pattern

2010-02-04T12:29:00.003-05:00

Source: FT

Never short a country with $2 trillion in reserves?

2010-02-02T22:08:00.004-05:00

Some commentary on the Chanos-China-Short:

China Financial Markets

In fact, it was the very process of generating massive reserves that created the risks which subsequently devastated the US and Japan. Both countries had accumulated reserves over a decade during which they experienced sharply undervalued currencies, rapid urbanization, and rapid growth in worker productivity (sound familiar?). These three factors led to large and rising trade surpluses which, when combined with capital inflows seeking advantage of the rapid economic growth, forced a too-quick expansion of domestic money and credit.

It was this money and credit expansion that created the excess capacity that ultimately led to the lost decades for the US and Japan. High reserves in both cases were symptoms of terrible underlying imbalances, and they were consequently useless in protecting those countries from the risks those imbalances posed.

We must be careful how we read history. The fact that the US and Japan had terrible decades following periods during which they had amassed levels of reserves that China has subsequently matched, and under conditions similar to those of China, does not necessarily mean that China too must have a lost decade or two. Chanos is not being crazy when he worries, but it is still an open question as to whether or not he will turn out to be right.

The Treason of the Senate

2010-02-02T06:45:00.001-05:00

Sounds familiar...

"The Treason of the Senate" (1906), David Graham Phillips

The greatest single hold of “the interests” is the fact that they are the “campaign contributors”—the men who supply the money for “keeping the party together,” and for “getting out the vote.” […] Who pays the big election expenses of your congressman, of the men you send to the legislature to elect senators? Do you imagine those who foot those huge bills are fools? Don’t you know that they make sure of getting their money back, with interest, compound upon compound?

The Obama Budget

2010-02-01T15:01:00.003-05:00

Priorities, priorities.

Bloomberg

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- The Obama administration proposed to increase taxes on Americans earning more than $200,000 by close to $970 billion over the next decade and take in an additional $400 billion from businesses even as it retooled a proposed crackdown on international tax-avoidance techniques.

The new budget released today would reinstate 10-year-old income tax rates of 36 percent and 39.6 percent for single Americans earning more than $200,000 and joint filers who make more than $250,000 as part of a broad $1.9 trillion tax increase proposal. It proposes to eliminate preferences for oil and gas companies, life-insurance products, executives of investment partnerships, and U.S.-based companies that operate overseas.

Economy in U.S. Grew at 5.7% Pace, Most in Six Years

2010-01-29T11:39:00.004-05:00

Bloomberg

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- The economy in the U.S. expanded in the fourth quarter at the fastest pace in six years as factories cranked up assembly lines and companies increased investment in equipment and software.

The 5.7 percent increase in gross domestic product, which exceeded the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, marked the best performance since the third quarter of 2003, figures from the Commerce Department showed today in Washington. Efforts to rebuild depleted inventories contributed 3.4 percentage points to GDP, the most in two decades.

RIP Howard Zinn

2010-01-28T23:28:00.001-05:00

Today's Links

2010-01-25T12:44:00.003-05:00

Long Bets

China Now Setting World Oil Prices

US oil industry hit by cyberattacks: Was China involved?

The Origin of Life - Abiogenesis - Dr. Jack Szostak

Who's Doling Out the Cheese?

2010-01-25T10:59:00.004-05:00

Awesome

2010-01-25T10:41:00.002-05:00

The Second Wave Baby!

2010-01-23T15:49:00.003-05:00

Today's Links

2010-01-23T15:46:00.005-05:00

Unemployment Rose In 43 States Last Month, Still No Job Growth

Tesla finalizes $465 m loan

They Rule

Get While the Gettin's Good

2010-01-23T15:06:00.003-05:00

Onward and upward...

Google’s Founders File to Sell 5 Million Shares Each

Jan. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Google Inc. founders Larry Page and Sergey Brin have adopted five-year trading plans to sell about 5 million shares each, reducing their combined ownership of stock outstanding to 15 percent from 18 percent.

With the reduction in shares, Brin and Page’s voting power in the company would drop to 48 percent from 59 percent, according to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Based on today’s closing stock price, each would get about $2.75 billion from selling the shares.

“They are both as committed as ever to Google and are integrally involved in our day-to-day management and product strategy,” Google said in an e-mailed statement. “The majority of their net worth remains with Google.”

The Oil That We Can Afford To Burn

2010-01-21T21:29:00.014-05:00

The oil story has all but disappeared from the headlines as gasoline prices dropped back to mid-range comfort, but that's considering we're still with-in the greatest post-war rescission in a half-century. Though, be assured, only market forces will persuade consumers to retool and rethink their energy habits -- and it's due time.

Jeff Rubin at The Business of Climate Change Conference 2009: